First, it was most of the local cities hollering as they got hit. Tax revenues are down almost everywhere in Johnson County, except Leawood. Overland Park alone is running a $2 million deficit.

Then, it was the county’s turn to groan. Because of lower proceeds from sales taxes and lower home valuations that drove down property tax revenues, county government found itself $14 million short.

Now, as Paul Harvey used to say, here is the rest of the story.

The state of Kansas has been shell-shocked by a gargantuan $51 million shortfall in May compared to revenue projections made just six weeks ago.

If those numbers keep up this pace, the Legislature will be looking at a bloodbath when they return to their next session in January. And in this no-tax-increase environment, mammoth deficits can only be plugged by you-know-what. Steep budget cuts.

The question is, will the bad numbers continue?

Well, that’s a real mystery. The conundrum is, the unemployment rate in Kansas has remained at 4 percent, which is a pretty great number and consistent with the recent past. Usually, when tax revenues plummet, so do jobs. But Kansas has a thriving agricultural economy; its private plane industry is booming; oil and gas is expanding; and our own Johnson County employment remains strong.

Just what is happening here?

The sharpest drop was revenue from individual income taxes, which basically comes from withholding. So, it seems, one of two things is happening. Either people are withholding less by changing the number of dependents they are reporting to keep more cash in their pockets, or people have moved down the ladder to lower paying jobs. I think it is number one. People are claiming more dependents, keeping more of their take-home checks, and figure they will worry about the difference when they pay their taxes next April. Number two just doesn’t seem feasible, because too much of the state’s economy is strong.

Sales taxes were also down, but by only 3 percent, $4 million.

And then there was some good news. Taxes on oil and gas, cigarettes, and beer were all above estimates.

In addition, Kansas is due for a windfall of about $80 million this year in “privilege fees” paid by casinos to have the right to bid for their projects. Whether their bids are successful or not, we get to keep their up-front fees.

That, at least, buys us maybe two bad months.

But, at the risk of sounding like Chicken Little, we do have a possibly severe crunch facing us.

Already, most of the state’s hoped-for discretionary dollars are accounted for by increased costs for K-12 public education, mandated by the Kansas Supreme Court.

Say goodbye to highway funds. Bye-bye to social programs. Some new fees may be imposed.

That is, of course, if the trends continue.

It is possible that May was an aberration, and we will be back on track in June.

But if Kansans continue to pay in less withholding, and we are down $50 million a month for a long stretch, we will find that even in relatively good times, the revenue shortfalls could create a real crisis.

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